Climate Change
By Chris Tilley
Is our climate changing and is humanity causing it? The answer to both is a definite yes. The IPCC, International Panel on Climate Change has agreed that climate change is occurring and that humanity is causing it. The IPCC was setup by World Meteorological Organization and by the United Nations Environment Programme. The panel consists of many scientists from all over the world. The reports are then approved by representatives of all member countries. These reports are very scientifically determined but with many governments involved it is on the conservative side.(source) I am planning a series of articles based on the IPCC report and up first is describing their story-lines.
As a basis for their scientific inquiry they developed four general story-lines for the Earth over the next hundred years. There are also some alternative story-lines related to the four major ones. These control the variables that they use in there climate models. Below is a graphic that shows the the four main story-lines and the influences that define them.
The first up is the A1 story-line. Here we have substantial economic growth with a commitment to market based solutions. High levels of investment in technologies, education and institution resulting in innovation. We also have a high level oh education at the household level. In this story-line the Earths population peaks at about 9 billion in 2050 and declines to 7 billion by 2100. This story-line was subdivided in to three sub groups. With A1Fl we get there with increasing dependence on fossil fuels. The A1T group puts the emphasis on alternative energy methods. The A1B group uses an equal mix of fossil fuels and alternative energy methods.(source)(source)
The A2 story-line has a trend toward economic regions slower trade and spread on new technologies. This storyline also has less cooperation between nations. Overall this slows development on new technologies. Here the population grows to the largest of all the story-lines at 15 billion in 2100. Per capita income difference remain at the same level or increase. Global environmental issues are overlooked in favor of regional issues.(source)
The B1 story-lines key differences are high environmental and social consciousness. The population follows the same model as the A1 with the peak in 2050 and 7 billion in 2100. This story line has the voluntary reduction of consumption. It also shares the global cooperations and rapid technological improvements. Material waste is minimized by maximizing reuse and recycling. There is also a smooth transition away from fossil fuels to alternatives. Cities are compact and designed for non motorized transport.(source)
The B2 story-line takes features from the regional parts of A2 and the environmental consciousness of B1. The population is 10 billion in 2100. The per capita income remains widely different between countries. Development is slowed. Environmental action is focused on the community level. Our dependence on cars is reduced and local food sources are encouraged.(source)
These story-lines are routinly referenced in all of the IPCC reports. Below is one of the IPCC graphs showing the global warming trends based on the story-lines.
This shows the average global temperature rise, the actual change in a particular area will differ. In the next article we will take a look at some of the temperature changes and the consequences of those changes.
These story-lines are only possible paths for humanity. They are not making predictions on which one we are on. They also do not have a preferred path.