Rising Temperature
By Chris Tilley
So what is the temperature likely to do in the next hundred years? The quick answer is that it is going to increase. There are other factors where we live and and the season that are going to effect the regional increases. Of course it will also greatly depend on what we do right now. These are all discussed in the IPCC reports.(source)
First up is the global mean temperature increase. These are the done by the story lines that we discussed in last weeks articles. Below are the global average increase for 2090-2099 over 1980-1999. The first number is the prediction based on numerous climate models. The second numbers are the range of those models.
- B1: +1.8°C (1.1°C to 2.9°C)
- B2: +2.4°C (1.4°C to 3.8°C)
- A1B: +2.8°C (1.7°C to 4.4°C)
- A1T: +2.4°C (1.4°C to 3.8°C)
- A2: +3.4°C (2.0°C to 5.4°C)
- A1FI: +4.0°C (2.4°C to 6.4°C)
These temperature changes are only averages. It is expected that the changes over land will be double the average increase. The northern latitudes will also see greater than average increases. The North Atlantic and the southern oceans will see less than average increases. As you can see from the graphics the patterns don’t change across the globe for the different story-lines just change the degree of change. The interesting bit is the purple up in the arctic.
The season are also going to effect the increases. The maps below show the temperature increase over 1980 to 1999 averages from the months of December through February (DJF) and June through August (JJA). Shown is the A1B story-line the other s follow the same pattern just differ in degree of change. Again the northern latitudes see a major increase in the winter time.
NOAA is currently tracking deviations from the 1961 to 1990 average. As you can see there are changes. These maps are published monthly at the National Climatic Data Center.(source)
One of the biggest effects directly coming from the change in temperature is that heat waves are going to become more frequent and more intense. Heat Waves cause more deaths that hurricanes or floods. Between 1992 and 2001 heat caused 2190 deaths where hurricanes killed 150 and floods 880.(source) Use of air conditioners in these times can lead to electricity use spikes and power outages.
Our oceans are also expected to warm. The oceans act as heat sinks taking excess heat from the atmosphere, that is why on the maps that the temperature increase over the oceans is lower. Evaporation and the amount of water the atmosphere can hold are functions of temperature. So this is going to have an effect on precipitation but thats another article.
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Comment by sadfasd — Wednesday, August 19, 2009 @ 1:17 am